Hurricane Risk in the Turks and Caicos Islands

Know the Facts Before Your Trip

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••• Hurricane Irene, 2011. Weather.com

If you are planning a trip to the Turks and Caicos Islands, it's prudent to know about how they are affected by the Atlantic hurricane season. Like the neighboring Bahamas to the north, the Turks and Caicos are vulnerable to hurricanes.

In 2017, the Atlantic hurricane season was more active than normal. In September 2017, the Turks & Caicos Islands were ravaged by back-to-back category 5 hurricanes, Irma and Maria, but the islands made a speedy recovery.

In recent years, other major hurricanes that impacted the Turks and Caicos Islands include Category 4 Hurricane Ike in 2008 and Category 1 Hurricane Irene in 2011. In 2014, Hurricane Bertha made landfall on Middle Caicos Island as a tropical storm with wind speeds around 45 mph, bringing heavy rainfall but causing no major damage. In 2015, Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin washed out roads and damaged homes on the islands. 

Hurricane Season Dates 

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the peak period from early August through the end of October. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

A Typical Hurricane Season

Based on historical weather records dating back to 1950, the Atlantic region typically experiences 12 tropical storms with sustained winds of 39 mph, of which six turn into hurricanes with winds reaching 74 mph or greater, and three major hurricanes Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. It's important to note that most of these hurricanes do not make landfall on the Turks and Caicos.

Risk on Turks and Caicos

A hurricane hits the Turks and Caicos, on average, every seven years. A hurricane passes in the vicinity of the island, on average, every two years.

Vacation Considerations

Statistically, the chances of a hurricane or tropical storm hitting the Turks and Caicos during your visit are very slim. Still, there are choices you can make to lower the risk of a hurricane disrupting your vacation.

Note that three out of four hurricanes and tropical storms occur between August and October, with storm activity peaking in early to mid-September. It is very rainy in the fall, with frequent strong thunderstorms on the west coast that are accompanied by tropical waves and low pressure. 

If you're traveling during hurricane season, and especially during the peak August-to-October period, you should strongly consider buying travel insurance in case your timing is unlucky.

Hurricane Warnings

If you're traveling to a hurricane-prone destination, download the hurricane app from the American Red Cross for storm updates and a slew of helpful features.

Recap of Hurricane Season 2017

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a wildly active, ruthlessly deadly, and extremely destructive season that ranked among most ferocious since records began in 1851. Worse yet, the season was relentless, with all 10 of the season's hurricanes occurring consecutively.

Most forecasters missed the mark, either slightly or significantly underestimating both the number and fury of the storms. Early in the year, forecasters anticipated that an El Niño would develop, lowering storm activity. However, the predicted El Niño failed to develop and instead, cool-neutral conditions developed to create a La Niña for the second year in a row. Some forecasters adjusted their predictions in light of the developments, but none fully comprehended how the season would unfold.

Keep in mind that a typical year brings 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The year 2017 had a significantly above-average season that produced a total of 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. Here is how forecasters fared with their predictions for the 2017 season. 

  • NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) slightly underestimated the season, having predicted an "above-normal" season with 11 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.
  • Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) also predicted above-average activity with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. 
  • Tropical Storm Risk from the University College London underestimated the ferocity of the season by predicting 14 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. 
  • The Weather Channel also predicted a normal season, with 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
  • North Carolina State University's Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences also missed the mark by predicting a normal hurricane season with 11 to 15 named storms, four to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
  • Accuweather was way off, having predicted a slightly less active-than-normal season, with 10 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
  • Colorado State University also predicted a year slightly less active than typical, with 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.